Sierra Magazine: Explore, enjoy and protect the planet.

From 2015 onward, new posts will appear only here: http://www.sierraclub.org/greenlife


The Green Life: Top Statistician Putting His Chips on Climate Change

« HDTVs: Can They Be Green? | Main | Daily Roundup: August 13, 2009 »

August 13, 2009

Top Statistician Putting His Chips on Climate Change

Betting on climate change Still doubting that global warming is real? Stat man Nate Silver would bet against you. Here’s the deal he offered his skeptical readers at FiveThirtyEight: For every day that the high temperature in a reader's hometown is at least one degree above average, she owes him $25. For every day that it’s at least one degree below average, he owes her $25.

The game is a response to arguments against the reality of global warming that are based on daily weather.  You’ve heard 'em: “Well, it’s really quite cold today. I'm chilly. When is this global warming thing going to kick in anyway?” One Drudge Report post gloats about a snowstorm on the day Al Gore testified before a Senate committee on global warming. Arguments like these, Silver points out, aren’t based on statistics that would prove a trending change in climate.

Considering that Silver earned his fame by accurately calculating and predicting baseball outcomes and moved on to successfully predict election results and even this year's Oscar winners, it's almost certain to be a foolhardy play to bet against him.

--Sarah F. Kessler


TrackBack URL for this entry:

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Top Statistician Putting His Chips on Climate Change:

User comments or postings reflect the opinions of the responsible contributor only, and do not reflect the viewpoint of the Sierra Club. The Sierra Club does not endorse or guarantee the accuracy of any posting. The Sierra Club accepts no obligation to review every posting, but reserves the right (but not the obligation) to delete postings that may be considered offensive, illegal or inappropriate.

Up to Top

Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...